Future Pandemics Research Articles

Exploring the Experiences of Health Care Providers and Managers in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Summative Content Analysiss

Background: The rapid morbidity and high mortality rates associated with COVID-19 have placed significant strain on healthcare systems. Mazandaran, as the third province, has been affected by this infectious pandemic. Objectives: The present study aimed to explore the experiences of healthcare providers and managers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The present qualitative research study was conducted using the content analysis approach between April 2022 and August 2022 to provide deep insights into the experiences of healthcare providers and managers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The participants included 15 hospital managers, comprising 2 clinical nurse supervisors, 3 matrons, and 10 chief executive officers. The participants were purposefully selected from hospitals affiliated with Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Iran. Data were collected through semi-structured individual interviews and the assessment of documents from the vice-chancellors of treatment, food and drug, development, and human resources. Results: The category of "challenges and strategies" emerged during the process of reducing and abstracting the codes. The challenges category evolved from three subcategories, including care and cure challenges, challenges related to providing physical resources and personal protective equipment (PPE), and challenges faced by healthcare providers. Similarly, the strategies category emerged from three subcategories, including strategies to improve patient care and treatment outcomes, strategies for procuring PPE and physical resources, and strategies for human resource management. Conclusions: The results of the present study revealed several challenges and strategies experienced by healthcare managers at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences and hospital managers. Additionally, based on the existing infrastructure of Mazandaran University and the managerial skills of the managers, successful strategies were employed to tackle these challenges. These experiences can be utilized to inform revisions to health-related policies. Documenting these experiences can aid in better management of future infectious pandemics.

Impact of pandemic mobility restrictions on kidney transplant patients' experience: lessons on quality of care.

Patient perspectives on their post-operative health are acknowledged as valuable healthcare outcomes and should be scrupulously considered when designing interventions for patient-centered healthcare. Yet, following the COVID-19 lockdown and in the absence of standardized guidelines on how to best provide virtual chronic care to kidney transplant recipients, little is known about how this unique population coped and managed to comply with public health indications during confinement. This study addresses this shortcoming by examining the experiences of patients from a tertiary hospital in Spain during the initial weeks of the lockdown decreed by the national government. Specifically, we focus our attention on the perceptions and experiences of these patients by retrieving robust qualitative and quantitative data: the former based on a thematic analysis of focus group transcripts, the latter obtained from a large-scale survey. Our findings identify opportunities for improvement in the quality of care and point to the provisions that might be made when facing future pandemics or lockdown-requiring situations. As healthcare services navigate evolving landscapes, our findings on the experience of kidney transplant recipients should enable hospital services to improve the quality of care they are able to provide to such patients during periods of restricted mobility, especially those associated with future disease emergencies, and considering that home confinement is often part of the natural course of post-operative care of these patients.

Parental perspectives on the management of online learning and school readjustment for children with SEN during the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons and applications for possible school closures

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in worldwide school closures and disrupted education – which was extended in the Republic of Ireland – and some children with SEN may be more adversely impacted by prolonged school closures than others. Despite this, and possible future pandemics, experiences of Irish children with SEN have not been explored to date. The current research utilised semi-structured interviews to explore parental perspectives (n = 10) of online learning and the subsequent return to education for children with SEN. Reflexive Thematic Analysis resulted in the identification of three global themes: [1] Balancing Act, pertaining to a lack of support and educational provision, [2] Prioritising Wellbeing over Education, whereby parents made the decision to stop engaging in online learning to promote familial wellbeing, and [3] The Return to School and its Challenges, highlighting academic, behavioural, and mental health concerns on return to education. Inclusion of parental feedback was noted as important for the success of home-schooling during future school closures and is a clear application of this work. Finally, suggestions are made for research to examine the links between support for parents and children’s academic attainment and wellbeing, as well as child insight directing provision for school closures.

Web-based Dashboard on ECMO Utilization in Germany: An Interactive Visualization, Analyses, and Prediction Based on Real-life Data

In Germany, a comprehensive reimbursement policy for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) results in the highest per capita use worldwide, although benefits remain controversial. Public ECMO data is unstructured and poorly accessible to healthcare professionals, researchers, and policymakers. In addition, there are no uniform policies for ECMO allocation which confronts medical personnel with ethical considerations during health crises such as respiratory virus outbreaks.Retrospective information on adult and pediatric ECMO support performed in German hospitals was extracted from publicly available reimbursement data and hospital quality reports and processed to create the web-based ECMO Dashboard built on Open-Source software. Patient-level and hospital-level data were merged resulting in a solid base for ECMO use analysis and ECMO demand forecasting with high spatial granularity at the level of 413 county and city districts in Germany.The ECMO Dashboard (https://www.ecmo-dash.de/), an innovative visual platform, presents the retrospective utilization patterns of ECMO support in Germany. It features interactive maps, comprehensive charts, and tables, providing insights at the hospital, district, and national levels. This tool also highlights the high prevalence of ECMO support in Germany and emphasizes districts with ECMO surplus – where patients from other regions are treated, or deficit – origins from which ECMO patients are transferred to other regions. The dashboard will evolve iteratively to provide stakeholders with vital information for informed and transparent resource allocation and decision-making.Accessible public routine data could support evidence-informed, forward-looking resource management policies, which are urgently needed to increase the quality and prepare the critical care infrastructure for future pandemics.

Understanding covid-19 prevention behaviours: Implications for social and health marketers for the prevention of future pandemics

From the integrative perspectives of the health belief model and social influence theories, the study sought to identify factors social and health marketers should focus on to elicit voluntary change in behavior toward the performance of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors such as frequent handwashing with soap, social distancing, and avoidance of handshaking using mixed method approach. The quantitative data from 605 respondents through structured questionnaires were analyzed using PLS-SEM. The qualitative data through five focus group discussions were also analyzed using thematic analysis. The result shows that religiosity and trust in traditional medicine are the major factors contributing to the lack of severity and susceptibility to the coronavirus. The result further shows informational and normative social influencers as significant mediators between the constructs of the HBM and the performance of the COVID-19 protocols, suggesting that these influencers play a significant role in achieving the performance of the recommended behaviors.

Stress, anxiety, depression and sleep disturbance among healthcare professional during the COVID-19 pandemic: An umbrella review of 72 meta-analyses

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has significantly impacted the psychological and physical health of a wide range of individuals, including healthcare professionals (HCPs). This umbrella review aims provide a quantitative summary of meta-analyses that have investigated the prevalence of stress, anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbance among HCPs during the COVID-19 pandemic. An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses reviews was conducted. The search was performed using the EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar databases from 01st January 2020 to 15th January 2024. A random-effects model was then used to estimate prevalence with a 95% confidence interval. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analyses were then conducted to explore the heterogeneity of the sample. Seventy-two meta-analyses involved 2,308 primary studies were included after a full-text review. The umbrella review revealed that the pooled prevalence of stress, anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbance among HCPs during the COVID-19 pandemic was 37% (95% CI 32.87–41.22), 31.8% (95% CI 29.2–34.61) 29.4% (95% CI 27.13–31.84) 36.9% (95% CI 33.78–40.05) respectively. In subgroup analyses the prevalence of anxiety and depression was higher among nurses than among physicians. Evidence from this umbrella review suggested that a significant proportion of HCPs experienced stress, anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbance during the COVID-19 pandemic. This information will support authorities when implementing specific interventions that address mental health problems among HCPs during future pandemics or any other health crises. Such interventions may include the provision of mental health support services, such as counseling and peer support programs, as well as the implementation of organizational strategies to reduce workplace stressors.

Next generation single-domain antibodies against respiratory zoonotic RNA viruses

The global impact of zoonotic viral outbreaks underscores the pressing need for innovative antiviral strategies, particularly against respiratory zoonotic RNA viruses. These viruses possess a high potential to trigger future epidemics and pandemics due to their high mutation rate, broad host range and efficient spread through airborne transmission. Recent pandemics caused by coronaviruses and influenza A viruses underscore the importance of developing targeted antiviral strategies. Single-domain antibodies (sdAbs), originating from camelids, also known as nanobodies or VHHs (Variable Heavy domain of Heavy chain antibodies), have emerged as promising tools to combat current and impending zoonotic viral threats. Their unique structure, coupled with attributes like robustness, compact size, and cost-effectiveness, positions them as strong alternatives to traditional monoclonal antibodies. This review describes the pivotal role of sdAbs in combating respiratory zoonotic viruses, with a primary focus on enhancing sdAb antiviral potency through optimization techniques and diverse administration strategies. We discuss both the promises and challenges within this dynamically growing field.

Predicting the Spread of a Pandemic Using Machine Learning: A Case Study of COVID-19 in the UAE

Pandemics can result in large morbidity and mortality rates that can cause significant adverse effects on the social and economic situations of communities. Monitoring and predicting the spread of pandemics helps the concerned authorities manage the required resources, formulate preventive measures, and control the spread effectively. In the specific case of COVID-19, the UAE (United Arab Emirates) has undertaken many initiatives, such as surveillance and contact tracing by introducing mobile apps such as Al Hosn, containment of spread by limiting the gathering of people, online schooling and remote work, sanitation drives, and closure of public places. The aim of this paper is to predict the trends occurring in pandemic outbreak, with COVID-19 in the UAE being a specific case study to investigate. In this paper, a predictive modeling approach is proposed to predict the future number of cases based on the recorded history, taking into consideration the enforced policies and provided vaccinations. Machine learning models such as LASSO Regression and Exponential Smoothing, and deep learning models such as LSTM, LSTM-AE, and bi-directional LSTM-AE, are utilized. The dataset used is publicly available from the UAE government, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC) and consists of several attributes, such as the numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, tests, and vaccinations. An additional categorical attribute is manually added to the dataset describing whether an event has taken place, such as a national holiday or a sanitization drive, to study the effect of such events on the pandemic trends. Experimental results showed that the Univariate LSTM model with an input of a five-day history of Confirmed Cases achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 275.85, surpassing the current state of the art related to the UAE by over 30%. It was also found that the bi-directional LSTMs performed relatively well. The approach proposed in the paper can be applied to monitor similar infectious disease outbreaks and thus contribute to strengthening the authorities’ preparedness for future pandemics.

Managing disrupted supply chains in Swedish hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and caused widespread shortages of healthcare supplies. This mixed-methods study examined the management of supply shortages in Swedish hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The key findings are that the shortage of supplies was initially severe owing to low regional and national contingency inventory levels, a lack of knowledge of supply chain management, and cost-saving measures. The perceived consequences of the shortage of personal protective equipment persisted in emergency and inpatient departments, in the later waves. Although pharmaceutical shortages later decreased, hospital managers were disappointed that they persisted. This study also highlights the effectiveness of consensus-based hourly supply agreements between service organisations and unit managers, which makes the prioritisation of the limited supply more dynamic. Despite these challenges, hospitals were able to adapt to the supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic; however, the results emphasise the importance of preparedness for future pandemics.

Can COVID-19 infection be considered an occupational disease or injury? Analysis to fill up regulatory gaps.

Although the pandemic is nearing its end, the question of whether COVID-19 infection will be considered a work-related or occupational disease remains a legal issue. Therefore, this study aims to provide clarification on this matter. Since the International Labour Organization (ILO) serves as the primary authority on work-related matters, this study is focused on analyzing the ILO's policies regarding the acknowledgment of COVID-19 infections as occupational diseases. It also investigates how States can recognize COVID-19 as such a disease while delving into the connection between the disease or injury and the occupation itself. This study utilizes a doctrinal methodology, focusing on legal research. This approach employs an applied (expository) research method and discusses the topic from a professional constituency perspective, as proposed by Arthurs in 1983. The findings indicate that the ILO does not explicitly mention the pandemic or COVID-19 infection as an occupational disease in its list. However, it does include "infectious-related diseases" or "work that carries a particular risk of contamination" as occupational or work-related diseases, which can logically be interpreted as encompassing COVID-19 infection as an occupational or work-related disease. As the ILO sets guiding principles for its member States, this study recommends that the ILO should establish clear and comprehensive guidelines for member States to recognize COVID-19 infections or any future pandemics as occupational diseases. This study will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers who intend to enact or amend national legislation to align with the ILO. Furthermore, it will assist relevant stakeholders in taking necessary actions based on the study's findings.

Sociodemographic factors associated with vaccine hesitancy in the South Asian community in Canada.

South Asians represent the largest non-white ethnic group in Canada and were disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to determine the factors associated with vaccine hesitancy in South Asian Canadians. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of vaccine hesitancy using data collected at the baseline assessment of a prospective cohort study, COVID CommUNITY South Asian. Participants (18 + years) were recruited from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in Ontario (ON) and the Greater Vancouver Area in British Columbia (BC) between April and November 2021. Demographic characteristics and vaccine attitudes measured by the Vaccine Attitudes Examination (VAX) scale were collected. Each item is scored on a 6-point Likert scale, and higher scores reflect greater hesitancy. A multivariable linear mixed effects model was used to identify sociodemographic factors associated with vaccine hesitancy, adjusting for multiple covariates. A total of 1496 self-identified South Asians (52% female) were analyzed (mean age = 38.5years; standard deviation (SD): 15.3). The mean VAX score was 3.2, SD: 0.8 [range: 1.0‒6.0]. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included: time since immigration (p = 0.04), previous COVID-19 infection (p < 0.001), marital status (p < 0.001), living in a multigenerational household (p = 0.03), age (p = 0.02), education (p < 0.001), and employment status (p = 0.001). Among South Asians living in ON and BC, time since immigration, prior COVID-19 infection, marital status, living in a multigenerational household, age, education, and employment status were associated with vaccine hesitancy. This information can be used to address vaccine hesitancy in the South Asian population in future COVID-19 waves or pandemics.

Frontline health workers’ experiences of providing care for people living with non-communicable diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ghana: a qualitative study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted frontline health workers. However, a neglected dimension of this discourse was the extent to which the pandemic impacted frontline healthcare workers providing non-communicable diseases...

Will voters polarize over pandemic restrictions? Theory and evidence from COVID-19

In a pandemic, voters will polarize over the choice of restrictions their society needs to impose. This is because in the eyes of voters, optimal restrictions vary with individual and aggregate productivity, vaccination status, and government fiscal transfer capacity. Specifically, less productive voters and those with a limited vaccination status prefer milder restrictions. In addition, voters in countries with superior vaccination programs prefer harsher restrictions, but the effect is weaker when their government has stronger fiscal transfer capacity. These propositions have been tested using the largest global dataset of pandemic restrictions and vaccination rates and are broadly confirmed. Consequently, the paper explains both cross-country variations in restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and their development as vaccination programs gained traction. It also offers policy insights into the level of restrictions for future pandemics that different voters will deem tolerable.

Rapid development and mass production of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing chicken egg yolk antibodies with protective efficacy in hamsters

Despite the record speed of developing vaccines and therapeutics against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is not a given that such success can be secured in future pandemics. In addition, COVID-19 vaccination and application of therapeutics remain low in developing countries. Rapid and low cost mass production of antiviral IgY antibodies could be an attractive alternative or complementary option for vaccine and therapeutic development. In this article, we rapidly produced SARS-CoV-2 antigens, immunized hens and purified IgY antibodies in 2 months after the SARS-CoV-2 gene sequence became public. We further demonstrated that the IgY antibodies competitively block RBD binding to ACE2, neutralize authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus and effectively protect hamsters from SARS-CoV-2 challenge by preventing weight loss and lung pathology, representing the first comprehensive study with IgY antibodies. The process of mass production can be easily implemented in most developing countries and hence could become a new vital option in our toolbox for combating viral pandemics. This study could stimulate further studies, optimization and potential applications of IgY antibodies as therapeutics and prophylactics for human and animals.

Model of perinatal care but not prenatal stress exposure is associated with birthweight and gestational age at Birth: The Australian birth in the time of COVID (BITTOC) study

ObjectiveThe present study aimed to understand, relative to standard care, whether continuity of care models (private midwifery, continuity of care with a private doctor, continuity of care with a public midwife), and women’s experience of maternity care provision, during the perinatal period buffered the association between prenatal maternal stress (PNMS) and infant birth outcomes (gestational age [GA], birth weight [BW] and birth weight for gestational age [BW for GA]). Methods2207 women who were pregnant in Australia while COVID-19 restrictions were in place reported on their COVID-19 related objective hardship and subjective distress during pregnancy and provided information on their model of maternity care. Infant birth outcomes (BW, GA) were reported on at 2-months postpartum. ResultsMultiple linear regressions showed no relationship between PNMS and infant BW, GA or BW for GA, and neither experienced continuity of care, nor model of maternity care moderated this relationship. However, compared with all other models of care, women enrolled in private midwifery care reported the highest levels of experienced continuity of care and birthed infants at higher GA. BW and BW for GA were higher in private midwifery care, relative to standard care. ConclusionEnrollment in continuous models of perinatal care may be a better predictor of infant birth outcomes than degree of PNMS exposure. These results highlight the possibility that increased, continuous support to women during pregnancy may play an important role in ensuring positive infant birth outcomes during future pandemics.

Global Governance for Personalized Medicine, Politics of Uncertainty, and Pierre Bourdieu.

How we choose to respond to uncertainty matters for robust and responsible science. New laws and consensus reports are popular instruments for global governance of emerging technology and attendant uncertainty. However, the sociologist Pierre Bourdieu noted that "[t]he judicial situation operates like a neutral space that neutralizes the stakes in any conflict through the de-realization and distancing implicit in the conversion of a direct struggle between parties into a dialogue between mediators." Put in other words, while law and legal modes of reasoning are certainly useful for conflict resolution and closure, their overprivileging in emerging technology and uncertainty governance can potentially bring about depoliticization by transforming the struggles and dissent necessary for democratic governance into a "dialogue between mediators." Hence, the critical sociological gaze offered by Bourdieu is particularly relevant for democratization of global governance of multiomics technologies and timely with the current uptake of personalized medicine. For example, in May 2023, the Romanian government introduced a law to give patients the right to personalized medicine. Personalized medicine is related to the larger umbrella concept and field of theranostics, the fusion of therapeutics and diagnostics. It is therefore timely to reflect on a "right for theranostics in planetary health," considering the potential for future pandemics and ecological crises in the 21st century. Rather than forcing consensus or convergence in an innovation ecosystem, dissent grounded in rigorous political theory, sociology of law and critical legal studies can strengthen democratization and global governance for personalized medicine and multiomics technologies.

The Antiviral Activity of Interferon-Induced Transmembrane Proteins and Virus Evasion Strategies

The Antiviral Activity of Interferon-Induced Transmembrane Proteins and Virus Evasion Strategies

Proactive vaccination using multiviral Quartet Nanocages to elicit broad anti-coronavirus responses.

Defending against future pandemics requires vaccine platforms that protect across a range of related pathogens. Nanoscale patterning can be used to address this issue. Here, we produce quartets of linked receptor-binding domains (RBDs) from a panel of SARS-like betacoronaviruses, coupled to a computationally designed nanocage through SpyTag/SpyCatcher links. These Quartet Nanocages, possessing a branched morphology, induce a high level of neutralizing antibodies against several different coronaviruses, including against viruses not represented in the vaccine. Equivalent antibody responses are raised to RBDs close to the nanocage or at the tips of the nanoparticle's branches. In animals primed with SARS-CoV-2 Spike, boost immunizations with Quartet Nanocages increase the strength and breadth of an otherwise narrow immune response. A Quartet Nanocage including the Omicron XBB.1.5 'Kraken' RBD induced antibodies with binding to a broad range of sarbecoviruses, as well as neutralizing activity against this variant of concern. Quartet nanocages are a nanomedicine approach with potential to confer heterotypic protection against emergent zoonotic pathogens and facilitate proactive pandemic protection.

Exploring views of South African research ethics committees on pandemic preparedness and response during COVID-19

South African research ethics committees (RECs) faced significant challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research ethics committees needed to find a balance between careful consideration of scientific validity and ethical merit of protocols, and review with the urgency normally associated with public health emergency research. We aimed to explore the views of South African RECs on their pandemic preparedness and response during COVID-19. We conducted in-depth interviews with 21 participants from RECs that were actively involved in the review of COVID-19 related research, at seven academic institutions across South Africa. Interviews were conducted remotely using an in-depth interview guide that included questions regarding REC preparedness and response to COVID-19. Interviews were conducted until data saturation, and audio-recordings were transcribed verbatim and coded. An inductive approach to thematic analysis was used to organise data into themes and sub-themes. This study focused on three main themes: coping during COVID-19, building REC capacity during pandemic times and a consistently cautious approach to mutual recognition of REC reviews. Despite an initial sense of unpreparedness, RECs were able to adapt and maintain careful ethical oversight of both COVID and non-COVID research, and the rigour of REC reviews. Several important lessons for preparedness and response to future pandemics were identified, including heightened awareness of publication, funding and political pressures, the importance of regular training for RECs and researchers, and strategies to enhance moral resilience of REC members. Incremental steps are needed to build trust and authentic partnerships among RECs in inter-pandemic times, to facilitate collaboration during future public health emergencies.

Modeling and predicting individual variation in COVID-19 vaccine-elicited antibody response in the general population.

As we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an "antibody score", which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from basic demographic and health information. The score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. Although the sensitivity of this score is currently not very high, in the future, as more data become available, it has the potential to identify vulnerable populations and encourage them to get booster vaccinations. Our mathematical model can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.